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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.